Like most other people, I am continually worried about the direction in which the Russia-Ukraine conflict is heading. The loss of lives is already distressing and aside from all the humanitarian implications of displacement, death, and disease, the specter of nuclear conflict refuses to go away. As Marginal Revolution points out here, the annualized probability of nuclear conflict is too high for comfort.
The probability of a nuclear war is inherently difficult to predict but what strikes me in this careful survey by Luisa Rodriguez for the Effective Altruism Forum is how much higher all the expert predictions and model forecasts are compared to what we would like them to be. Keep in mind that the following are annualized probabilities. For a child born today (say 75 year life expectancy) these probabilities (.0117) suggest that the chance of a nuclear war in their lifetime is nearly 60%, (1-(1-.0117)^75). At an annualized probability of .009 which is the probability from accident analysis it’s approximately 50%. See Rodriguez and also Shlosser’s Command and Control on the frightening number of near misses including one nuclear weapon dropped on North Carolina.
We should be a lot more worried about nuclear conflicts than we are currently.
Links of the Week
Life advice - From time to time, I happen to stumble upon great writing in the genre of life advice. Considering how much fluff exists in this category, it is quite hard to find something truly original and inspiring. This article manages to thread that line. (Link)
One of my heuristics for growth is to seek out the magicians, and find the magic.
Movies - A riveting profile of the enigmatic genius Francis Ford Coppola. In it, Coppola talks about his magnum opus is yet to be made. Among other things, the article makes clear the level of self-belief needed to truly stand out from the crowd. (Link)
Macroeconomics - A deeply insightful interview with the rising star of macro, Emi Nakamura. Extremely insightful for understand the causal links behind the rising inflation in the US.
Geopolitics - Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and soon to be King, gives his first interview to a Western media outlet for close to two years and the first after the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi. As gripping as you’d expect it to be. (Link)
Finance - Patrick Mackenzie explains the mechanics behind SWIFT, the backbone of all international money transfer, in his typically lucid style. (Link)
Ukraine - It is amazing how most of the top-draw analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict comes from Twitter. Here’s a Twitter thread talking about the parallels between the current conflict with that of the Finland-Soviet Union conflict in 1940. (Link)
Education - Fascinating read on the historical background behind the Montessori schooling system and how a learning system that was built for marginalized kids is now the preserve of the privileged. (Link)
Happy reading!